3 storylines and how to watch No. 5 Ohio State women vs. No. 1 UCLA
· Yahoo Sports
The last time a Big Ten team ranked No. 5 or lower won a conference tournament was 2011, when Ohio State women’s basketball head coach Jim Foster led the Buckeyes over the No. 2 Penn State Nittany Lions. Those were different days. The Big Ten had 11 teams, the Penn State Nittany Lions were near the top of the conference, and members of the current Buckeyes program were in elementary school.
Saturday afternoon in Indianapolis, Indiana, Ohio State has a chance to make the Big Ten Tournament final, but first have to beat the No. 1 seeded UCLA Bruins — a team 19-0 against Big Ten programs so far this season. Here are the storylines to watch, including an area vastly improved for the Buckeyes since the two teams last met, the continued growth of Elsa Lemmilä and looking past the record.
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Past shooting woes
On Dec. 28, 2025, the UCLA Bruins came to Columbus to play the Buckeyes in the regular season. It was the second conference game of the season for both sides, and began the 17-game run of Big Ten competition. Ohio State mostly finished its nonconference schedule, aside from a game against the TCU Horned Frogs that would come a few weeks later.
In that nonconference slate, there was little in terms of challenges. Outside of a humbling defeat to the No. 1 UConn Huskies and a surprise comeback against the No. 21 West Virginia Mountaineers, games featured a Buckeyes team building chemistry. At the time, Ohio State struggled mightily from beyond the arc.
Efficiency-wise, the Buckeyes 28.2% three-point shooting percentage was near the bottom of the Big Ten. In Ohio State 82-75 defeat to the Bruins, those shooting problems were clear. Head coach Kevin McGuff’s side missed its first 11 shots from beyond the arc, and went 1-for-13 in the first half. The only deep shot made came from 6-foot-6 center Elsa Lemmilä, who only has two makes from three-point range all season.
“What if” scenarios clearly do not change the past, but use Ohio State’s current three-point shooting percentage in that game, 38.9% in Big Ten play, on the Buckeyes’ 30 attempts and, if everything else stayed consistent, it is 12 more points on the scoreboard. Look at recent trends and it improved to 42.5% in the last eight games of the regular season from the start of February to the Buckeyes’ win over the Michigan State Spartans on March 1.
That would of course cause other in-game changes at the time, but that lack of competitive shooting put the Buckeyes in a hole that the team nearly came out of in the fourth quarter. Ohio State was never truly out of the game until the final buzzer. After the first quarter, UCLA’s lead was only two points, and only increased to six at halftime.
If that shooting holds true, Ohio State can be competitive against the Bruins, despite its exterior view of impossibility.
Lemmilä v. Betts
On that December day, center Elsa Lemmilä made her return to the Ohio State starting lineup. Prior to the season, the Finnish big had two surgeries that stretched her recovery time into the season. Lemmilä began the year in the starting lineup, but obvious discomfort put the center on the bench for eight games.
Fast forward to Friday in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament. Lemmilä, who has not left the starting lineup since she rejoined against the Bruins, is on a six-game run with at least 10 rebounds. Scoring-wise, the center’s 17 points against the Minnesota Golden Gophers on Friday’s 60-55 upset win matched point guard Jaloni Cambridge, only the second time in Big Ten play that the big outscored her fellow sophomore teammate this season.
That does not mean that Lemmilä will be able to go toe-to-toe with Betts, but it could be her best performance against the UCLA star in her fourth, and likely final, matchup against the fellow center on an NCAA court.
In that December defeat, Lemmilä had 13 points, 7 rebounds and 4 blocks, her best day against UCLA of the first three games, although Lemmilä did not start the other two. Either way, the ceiling continues to rise for Lemmilä and a double-double on Saturday could go a long way in any sort of Buckeye upset.
Rebounds will be crucial. Betts had 16 the last time these two teams played, but the Washington Huskies showed how the Buckeyes could be more successful on the boards. Washington’s bigs did not try to fight Betts for rebounds. Instead, they tried to make it harder for Betts to go up and get them. Lemmilä, or Kylee Kitts, could shadow Betts when the ball gets in the air and box out the big as best as they can. If that works, it is only one piece of a team full of dangerous pieces.
Guards v. Guards
Betts and Lemmilä are only two people on a court with 10 athletes. Sure, they are the biggest, but UCLA is more than Lauren Betts.
“Betts, she’s big and she’s tall and she’s skilled and she’s talented, but they’re they’re big across the board, not only just her, but their guards are tall and long, so they have a significant advantage in height and length. So it’ll be a real challenge for us,” McGuff told reporters.
In to help will be forward Kylee Kitts. The redshirt freshman has speed, size and athleticism and Saturday will be her eighth game back after Kitts hurt her shoulder late in the win against TCU on Jan. 19. Against Minnesota, McGuff put Kitts on alongside Lemmilä, instead of in the Finnish big’s place. Expect that again because Kitts can also take on taller guards or 5-foot-11 starting forward Gabriela Jaquez.
What also will help the Buckeyes go further is letting Lemmilä go one-on-one with Betts, expect a strong performance from the UCLA center and instead invest the time and attention into fellow senior guard Kiki Rice. In the last matchup, Rice hurt Ohio State nearly as much as Betts on offense. Rice had 16 points and four assists compared to Betts’ 16 points and four assists.
Ohio State has precedent for putting focus away from the person everyone knows can hurt them. Take former Michigan forward Naz Hillmon as an example. The former Big Ten big could score and rebound with ease, like Betts but without the height. Hillmon scored her career high against the Buckeyes when she scored 50 points on Jan. 21, 2021. Michigan lost that game.
Every Buckeye scored in double figures that day, which Ohio State is capable of doing in 2026 too. Three Buckeyes hit double-digits against Minnesota, and guard Ava Watson, who normally provides defense over offense, had eight points, which is only scratching the surface of her offensive ability. Watson went 2-for-5 from beyond the arc, and had a crucial three-point shot to start off fourth quarter scoring.
“[Watson] was amazing,” Jaloni Cambridge said. “We know she’s one of our best shooters on our team. So after she missed that and I got the ball, I knew she was wide open. You can’t leave a good shooter open no matter how many times you miss.”
Guard Kennedy Cambridge can have fits of offensive strength to go on top of her defense. Kennedy Cambridge enters Saturday off a six-steal game against the Golden Gophers. Another strong day like that off the ball would also be a welcome surprise. Saturday is the first time Kennedy Cambridge gets to play the team that she thinks took her Defensive Player of the Year award. What does that extra motivation do for Ohio State’s chances?
Scoring aside, to McGuff’s point, UCLA is long. The Buckeyes will need speed to not give shooting space in the half court defensive sets. It seems like a tough task, especially considering it is the third game in three days for McGuff’s side. Will a season full of pace and extra conditioning help Ohio State or could the rigors of tournament play finally wear the side down?
How to Watch
Date: Saturday, March 7, 2026
Time: 2:00 p.m. ET
Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana
Television: Big Ten Network
Stream: FOX Sports