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Free agency will scramble NFL Draft predictions for Jeremiyah Love, Ty Simpson, Carnell Tate, 49ers and Steelers

· Yahoo Sports

So much for all those mock draft certainties.

Jeremiyah Love landing with the Kansas City Chiefs or New Orleans Saints? Almost certainly toast.

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The Pittsburgh Steelers and San Francisco 49ers locking in on a first-round wide receiver? Much less likely.

The Tennessee Titans passing on a first-round receiver with the signing of Wan'Dale Robinson? Not so fast.

Those are just some of the reverberations from the first day of NFL free agency’s legal tampering period, which rolled into mock drafts like a live grenade.

Perhaps no headliner in the draft process had his potential landing spots impacted more significantly than Love, the No. 1 running back prospect who exited the league’s annual scouting combine on a heater that had him flying up some draft boards. So much so, it appears neither the Saints or the Chiefs (who hold the No. 8 and No. 9 picks in the first round) felt obliged to wait and see if he Love actually made it to their pick. Instead, each franchise will dole out the two richest running back contracts in this wave of free agency, with Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III committing to sign with Kansas City for three years and $45 million, and Travis Etienne Jr. locking in with the Saintsfor a surprising four-year $52 million deal.

This after the combine showcased two realities about the forthcoming running back class: That Love was far and away the elite prospect and likely to get drafted higher than anyone anticipated; and that the rest of the class is filled with dice rolls. Now it’s fair to wonder if the Chiefs and Saints both swung for the fences in free agency with a suspicion that Love wouldn’t be there to draft.

Now Love’s draft board likely shifts upward, potentially as high as the Titans at No. 4 or the Washington Commanders at No. 7. Both of those franchises have been doing their work on the free-agent class of running backs as well as the draft class — and as of Monday’s close, they’d not only missed out on Walker and Etienne, but even the next tier of best available veterans in J.K. Dobbins (who returned to the Denver Broncos on a two-year deal), Kenneth Gainwell (signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers), Tyler Allgeier (signed with the Arizona Cardinals) and Rico Dowdle (signed with the Steelers).

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That’s effectively the top six running backs who were available in free agency. And now it leaves the Titans with Tony Pollard heading into the last year of his deal, and the Commanders looking for a load-carrying centerpiece starter who now doesn’t appear to be available. Don’t be surprised if the next phase of mock drafts have shifted Love into one of those two spots — almost certainly no lower than Washington’s No. 7 pick.

Of course, that’s not the only dent delivered to the draft process by the first few hours of the free agency tampering window. Among some of the other prominent changes in the “need” department of various teams …

Quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa (to the Atlanta Falcons) and Malik Willis (to the Miami Dolphins) both came off the board, leaving the Cardinals with a starting quarterback hole that must either ride out another bridge year with Jacoby Brissett or get into the signing game with a handful of other veterans who also look like stopgap measures. Now it’s fair to begin connecting some dots to Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson, who may be this year’s Jaxson Dart — a late first-round quarterback that some team trades up to get into the fold.

Ty Simpsons is in the running to be QB2 in the 2026 NFL Draft. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Cardinals are very obviously there in the need department, and they have a high pick in the second round (No. 34 overall) that is in prime position to trade up into the first round if Simpson makes it to the 20s. It’s hard to say what capital would have to be surrendered without knowing exactly where Simpson could be selected, but the package would have to be similar to the one forked over from the New York Giants to the Houston Texans that facilitated a move to select Dart with the 25th pick in last year’s draft. To make that happen, the Giants traded the 34th and 99th picks in the 2025 draft, and another third-round pick in 2026. Beyond the No. 3 overall pick in the first round, Arizona has second-, third- and fourth-round ammunition in this draft to get a very solid move back into the first round done if the team wants to be aggressive, including picks Nos. 34, 65 and No. 104.

The Titans never got a shot at Indianapolis wideout Alec Pierce, who returned to the Colts on a whopping four-year $116 million extension. That changes the matrix a bit for the Titans, who were sure to cut ties with veteran Calvin Ridley if Pierce had been signed. Now the Titans have to make a decision with Ridley, who would need to be released by March 16 to avoid incurring a $1 million roster bonus and a partial salary guarantee for 2026. While the Titans signed Robinson to a four-year, $78 million deal, his slot position does not impact the future of Ridley as an outside receiver. That means if Ridley is ultimately cut in the next several days, the Titans likely have a replacement in mind: Ohio State’s Carnell Tate, who is currently slotted as the draft’s top wideout by many personnel departments.

There’s some moving parts here, but if Ridley gets cut, there’s going to be a strong line drawn between Tennessee’s No. 4 pick and Tate.

Entering the tampering period, the 49ers had a clear, gaping hole at their No. 1 wideout spot, while the Steelers had their own void at the No. 2 receiver. Both meaningfully addressed those issues Monday, with the 49ers agreeing with Mike Evans on a three-year, $42.4 million deal and the Steelers acquiring Michael Pittman Jr. from the Indianapolis Colts. You can argue the 49ers aren’t looking at Evans like a No. 1 — although I think that’s incorrect — but there will still be plenty of passing volume available for him alongside fellow receiver Ricky Pearsall, tight end George Kittle and running back Christian McCaffrey. Adding another first-round wide receiver with the No. 27 overall pick would seem too luxurious on top of the Evans deal. The team now has more pressing needs.

As for the Steelers, DK Metcalf and Pittman will lock in at the top two WR spots, and as of now, there’s still hope that former third-round pick Roman Wilson can make some kind of stride in contributions in Year 3. If the Steelers want to add a wideout, the class is deep enough to do it later rather than expending the No. 21 overall pick on top of trading for Pittman.

All of that, rippling just from the first several hours of the tamping window. And there will be more — when and if the Philadelphia Eagles find a trade buyer for wideout A.J. Brown …when some team shores up its pass rushing need with a Trey Hendrickson signing … when a team needing an instant starter at left tackle scoops up Taylor Decker … on and on.

This is all just getting started. And when it’s over, many of the draft predictions that we’ve been staring at for weeks or months will be circling the drain.


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