Nebraska or Troy? How to pick 4 vs. 13 matchup in 2026 March Madness bracket
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Nebraska or Troy? How to pick 4 vs. 13 matchup in 2026 March Madness bracket originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
Nebraska hasn't won an NCAA Tournament game in its history. The Cornhuskers can make history on Thursday, but they aren't necessarily content to just win one game.
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After a six-loss season, Nebraska enters the big dance looking to string together wins and prove this is the best team in program history. The journey starts against No. 13 Troy.
Troy slipped up a few times in the Sun Belt this season, but with wins over San Diego State and Akron plus a near-miss against USC, this Trojans team has proven it can hang with higher-level competition. Does that mean an upset is in the cards?
Here's what you need to know to choose between Nebraska and Troy in your March Madness bracket.
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Nebraska vs. Troy odds
Nebraska opens as a clear favorite over Troy, according to DraftKings odds. The Cornhuskers didn't win a game in the Big Ten Tournament, but Troy lost six times in Sun Belt play this season.
Here are the odds, TV info and location for the 4-13 matchup:
- Odds: Nebraska -13.5
- Date: Friday, March 20
- Time: 12:40 p.m. ET
- TV: TruTV
- Arena: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
STREAM:Watch Nebraska vs. Troy live with DIRECTV
Nebraska (26-6, 15-5 in Big Ten)
Nebraska has never won an NCAA Tournament game. There are no excuses for that not to change this year.
Fred Hoiberg’s Cornhuskers put together a dream season in Lincoln, even if it became clear over the course of the schedule that they weren’t quite as elite as some of the Big Ten’s best teams. A tournament win is one of Nebraska’s goals, but the program has even loftier expectations after losing only six games all season.
Nebraska’s offense can be hot-and-cold, which is a potential red flag entering the big dance. Rienk Mast’s offensive struggles have been a major factor in the Cornhuskers’ late-season slippage, and he will need to get back on track for this team to make a deep run. Pryce Sandfort is a terrific shooter who can get hot in a hurry, while Sam Hoiberg has developed into an all-around valuable player on both ends of the floor and shoots close to 55 percent from the field.
The Cornhuskers’ perimeter defense is one of the best in the nation. Opponents are shooting just under 30 percent from 3-point range, and only Iowa with its drastically slow pace allows fewer points per game than Nebraska. The ‘Huskers aren’t as strong from the standpoint of interior defense, with opponents finding more success inside, and you won’t see this group block too many shots.
Nebraska has played its way into an advantageous position in the first round. Come the second round, the Cornhuskers are going to need some of their offense from the first half of the season to show up to avoid a first weekend exit.
- NET ranking: 13th
- KenPom ranking: 14th
- Quad 1 record: 9-6
- Quad 2 record: 6-0
- Quad 3 record: 5-0
- Quad 4 record: 6-0
- Offensive efficiency ranking: 55th
- Defensive efficiency ranking: 7th
Key players
Pryce Sandfort, F, Jr. (6-6, 205): 17.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 40.1% 3-pt
Rienk Mast, F, Sr. (6-9, 240): 13.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.9 apg
Sam Hoiberg, G, Sr. (6-0, 183): 9.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 4.3 apg
Jamarques Lawrence, G, Sr. (6-3, 185): 9.7 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 4.0 apg
Berke Buyuktuncel, F, Jr. (6-9, 245): 6.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.9 bpg
MORE UPSET PICKS:10 seeds | 11 seeds | 12 seeds | 13 seeds
Troy (22-11, 12-6 in Sun Belt)
Troy looked like one of the top mid-majors in the country early in the season, when it beat San Diego State and UAB while losing to USC on what can only be called a miracle. The Trojans also beat Akron in a midseason non-conference game, but they struggled to take control of the Sun Belt Conference and only narrowly won a conference regular season title.
Troy can score at a fairly high clip, averaging 80.3 points per game and attempting plenty of 3s per game, but efficiency from deep hasn't consistently been there for this team. The Trojans shoot 33.5 from 3-point range and are more efficient closer to the basket but don't have the bodies to consistently get those opportunities.
This team has a glut of forwards but not a single player taller than 6-9. The Trojans don't block a significant number of shots, but they do rank top-50 nationally in rebounds.
Defensively, Troy limits opponents to just 31.3 percent from 3-point range. To no surprise, the Trojans' interior defense is a bit softer, though their points per game mark is skewed by five different overtime games, four of which went to at least a second overtime.
Troy doesn't necessarily excel in one particular area, but this is a battle-tested team that went 3-1 in Quad 1-2 games. The evidence that the Trojans can hang with a team like Nebraska is real, but their full body of work doesn't lend much confidence.
- NET ranking: 125th
- KenPom ranking: 143rd
- Quad 1 record: 1-0
- Quad 2 record: 2-1
- Quad 3 record: 4-7
- Quad 4 record: 13-3
- Offensive efficiency ranking: 141st
- Defensive efficiency ranking: 166th
Key players
Thomas Dowd, F, Jr. (6-6, 205): 14.8 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 2.2 apg
Victor Valdes, F, Sr. (6-9, 240): 14.8 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 4.6 apg
Cooper Campbell, G, Sr. (6-0, 183): 12.7 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 4.2 apg
Theo Seng, G, Sr. (6-3, 185): 12.8 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 1.1 apg
Cobi Campbell, F, Jr. (6-9, 245): 9.0 ppg, 1.5 apg, 40.4% 3-pt
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
Nebraska vs. Troy prediction
Sometimes, evaluating a lower seed against a higher seed is simple: how did the lower seed perform against higher-level competition?
Unlike many of the double-digit seeds in this tournament, the answer for Troy is positive. The Trojans beat San Diego State, Akron and UAB, while USC effectively needed a miracle to hold this team off in Southern California. That makes the rest of Troy's season downright mystifying, but it's a reminder that the talent and grit are both there.
The spread seems a bit too wide given Nebraska's late-season slip-ups, but the Cornhuskers have heart, too, as evidenced by some of their impressive comebacks in losses to some of the Big Ten's best teams. Troy's strong perimeter defense is much-needed against the shooting of Pryce Sandfort and Rienk Mast. In a best-case scenario, Troy can turn this game ugly and win it ugly.
The chances of Troy winning this game with its offense are slim. Nebraska's defense has been a constant this season, and few teams guard the perimeter better than the Cornhuskers. That doesn't bode well for a Trojans team that already doesn't shoot the ball well, so a Nebraska win is undoubtedly the likely result here.
SN EXPERT BRACKETS:DeCourcy (Arizona) | Bender (Michigan) | Iyer (Arizona) | Gay (UCLA women)
History of 4 vs. 13 matchups in NCAA Tournament
There has been at least one upset in a 4-13 matchup in five of the last seven NCAA Tournaments, but that trend took a turn in 2025 with all 4-seeds advancing to the second round.
Here is a look at the recent 4-13 upsets:
YearResult2024Yale 78, Auburn 762023Furman 68, Virginia 672021Ohio 62, Virginia 582021North Texas 78, Purdue 69 (OT)2019UC Irvine 70, Kansas State 642018Marshall 81, Wichita State 752018Buffalo 89, Arizona 692016Hawaii 77, California 662013La Salle 63, Kansas State 612012Ohio 65, Michigan 602011Morehead State 62, Louisville 612010Murray State 66, Vanderbilt 652009Cleveland State 84, Wake Forest 69