March Madness Expert Picks: Daily Best Bets and Predictions
· Yahoo Sports
Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.
Visit sports24.club for more information.
Welcome to your March Madness hub for the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament. Our college basketball experts will guide you through the March Madness bracket with March Madness expert picks, matchup breakdowns, and betting analysis for every game, from the First Four to the national championship.
Bookmark this page now and come back for our latest college basketball picks.
March Madness picks for 3/18 and 3/19
GamePickOdds Miami (OH)vs
SMUM-OH ML+215 TCU
vs
Ohio State Hardy o4.5 assists-105 Troy
vs
NebraskaOver 137.5-110South Florida
vs
Louisville Hadley o14.5 points-112High Point
vs
Wisconsin Wisconsin -10-110Siena
vs
Duke Duke -28.5-116McNeese
vs
VanderbiltMcNeese State TT u69.5-120North Dakota State
vs
Michigan State Coen Carr o11.5 points-110 Hawai'i
vs
Arkansas Arkansas TT o87.5-115VCU
vs
North Carolina VCU moneyline+120 Howard
vs
Michigan Michigan TT o90.5-120 Saint Louis
vs
GeorgiaOver 169.5-110Santa Clara
vs
KentuckyOweh o22.5 points-110
March Madness best bets and SGPs
First Four
11 Miami (OH) vs 11 SMU
Midwest Region (First Four), 9:15 p.m. ET, truTV
Best bet
Miami (Ohio) is a winning basketball team, and despite not having a stellar SOS, it took everyone’s best during MAC competition — especially in those final few games of conference play.
Much like how those foes were incentivized to end the RedHawks’ streak, Travis Steele’s squad is now motivated to prove it belongs in the Big Dance. It’ll give SMU everything it’s got in Dayton, with its stellar 3-point shooting being a big factor.
Speaking of which, SMU stinks away from home. The Mustangs were 5-9 SU away from Dallas this season.
Read Rohit Ponnaiya's full SMU vs. Miami (Ohio) predictions for Wednesday, March 18.
SGP
Thursday, March 19
9 TCU vs 8 Ohio State
East Region, 12:15 p.m. ET, CBS
Best bet
Brock Harding averages 5.7 assists and leads the TCU fast break, with those possessions fueled by creating turnovers. The Frogs rank 29th in FBPTS and will try to suck OSU into a quicker tempo.
Texas Christian’s offense thrives on ball movement, with one of the highest assist-to-FGM rates in the country (63rd), and Harding dished out 5+ dimes in 14 of the final 19 regular-season games.
He finished with just three assists in each of his two Big 12 tournament outings, due to foul trouble and some poor shooting. However, his Round 1 projections flirt with six dimes.
Read Jason Logan's full TCU vs. Ohio State predictions for Thursday, March 19.
SGP
13 Troy vs 4 Nebraska
South Region, 12:40 p.m. ET, truTV
Best bet
Long misses lead to long rebounds, and long rebounds lead to points in transition.
Expect plenty of each piece of that thought as the Troy Trojans hoist a bounty of 3-pointers early on Thursday: Troy takes 3-pointers at an inordinately high rate despite making less than a third of them, while the Nebraska Cornhuskers rank Top 10 in the country in both forcing 3-point attempts and in opponents missing those 3-pointers.
Nebraska is not exactly a fast-paced team, but those long misses should lead to enough easy buckets to propel this first-round matchup Over its modest total.
Read Douglas Farmer's full Troy vs Nebraska predictions for Thursday, March 19.
SGP
11 South Florida vs 6 Louisville
East Region, 1:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Best bet
The 6-foot-7 senior is a tough matchup for USF’s backcourt, which tops out at 6-foot-5. J'vonne Hadley can bully smaller defenders and blow by bigger ones if the Bulls switch out a forward on him.
He’s able to score in various ways, either finishing the fastbreak, getting to the rim, or knocking down looks from beyond the arc. Hadley can also scoop up misses for putbacks on the offensive glass.
He’s averaged 15 points over the past 11 games, and while his usage spikes with Mikel Brown Jr. out, he's still scored plenty of points when the freshman stud is in the lineup.
Read Jason Logan's full South Florida vs. Louisville predictions for Thursday, March 19.
SGP
12 High Point vs 5 Wisconsin
West Region, 1:50 p.m. ET, TBS
Best bet
The High Point Panthers are at their best when they can force turnovers and get to the line. However, the Wisconsin Badgers turn the ball over at the third-lowest rate in the country and do a great job at defending without fouling.
The bigger reason to fade the Panthers: they rank just 346th in strength of schedule per ESPN — the weakest of any tournament team that isn't a No. 16 seed.
Meanwhile, the Badgers have shown they can compete with elite competition, boasting five wins this season against teams currently in KenPom's Top 10.
Read Rohit Ponnaiya's full High Point vs. Wisconsin predictions for Thursday, March 19.
SGP
16 Siena vs 1 Duke
East Region, 2:50 p.m. ET, CBS
Best bet
When it comes to monster favorites in the Big Dance, those powerful programs live up to the hype. Since 1998, March Madness favorites of -28 or higher are 13-9 ATS.
Duke’s plan for Round 1 is to build a lead, sit the starters, and rest for the Round of 32. That doesn’t mean the Blue Devils can’t also cover this spread.
Going back to the non-conference slate, the Dukies laid spreads of 30+ and creamed those mid-major foes behind a bench scoring more than 36 points per game.
Projections bounce around 29 points, but I’ll give the Blue Devils the benefit of the doubt.
Read Jason Logan's full Siena vs. Duke predictions for Thursday, March 19.
SGP
12 McNeese vs 5 Vanderbilt
South Region, 3:15 p.m. ET, truTV
Best bet
The McNeese State Cowboys had both the best offensive efficiency and the best defensive efficiency in the Southland Conference. They may not have won the regular-season conference title, but they deserved this automatic bid.
But that should all come crumbling down against the Vanderbilt Commodores. McNeese thrives in slowing down a game and turning rebounds and free throws into points. That is more a reflection of Southland deficiencies than McNeese strengths, and the Commodores lack those deficiencies.
Instead, Vanderbilt’s quintet of length should snag rebounds and force an abundance of missed 3-pointers.
Read Douglas Farmer's full McNeese vs. Vanderbilt predictions for Thursday, March 19.
SGP
14 North Dakota State vs 3 Michigan State
East Region, 4:05 p.m. ET, TNT
Best bet
It’s safe to say North Dakota State hasn’t faced anyone as athletic as Coen Carr this year. The explosively talented guard is a threat in transition and can get to the basket in the half-court, exploiting NDSU’s weakness against isolation sets.
North Dakota State lacks the size inside that Michigan State’s Big Ten opponents usually bring, topping out at 6-foot-9 in the starting lineup. That gives Carr a clear path to attack the rim.
He’s scored 12 or more points in eight of his last 14 games, with projections sitting between 13 and 14 points for Thursday night.
Read Jason Logan's full North Dakota State vs. Michigan State predictions for Thursday, March 19.
SGP
13 Hawai'i vs 4 Arkansas
West Region, 4:25 p.m. ET, TBS
Best bet
The Arkansas Razorbacks average a whopping 89.9 points per game thanks to a highly efficient offense and blistering pace.
With superstar freshman Darius Acuff Jr. running the point, Arkansas turns the ball over at the lowest rate in the country while ranking eighth in 3PT% (38.9%).
Although the Hawai‘i Razborbacks powered their way to the Big West title behind strong defensive play, Arkansas won’t be fazed.
The Rainbow Warriors lack the athleticism to keep up, and the Razborbacks' uptempo style will lead to plenty of possessions in this matchup.
Read Rohit Ponnaiya's full Hawai'i vs. Arkansas predictions for Thursday, March 19.
SGP
11 VCU vs 6 North Carolina
South Region, 6:50 p.m. ET, TNT
Best bet
The VCU Rams have been walking a tightrope for the past two months. How much margin for error could they really have had, finishing the season 16-1 with a conference tournament championship and still landing an 11-seed?
Remember, the last four teams into the NCAA Tournament as at-larges land on the 11 line.
Living life on that edge can end badly, and in time it will, but it should provide some intensity against the North Carolina Tar Heels, particularly as they are without their best player and have lost their last two games.
Read Douglas Farmer's full VCU vs. North Carolina predictions for Thursday, March 19.
SGP
16 Howard vs 1 Michigan
Midwest Region, 7:10 p.m. ET, CBS
Best bet
I fear for the Howard Bison in this matchup.
Howard’s opponents draw an average free-throw rate of 38.5%, which is one of the highest in the field.
The Michigan Wolverines have yet to play a team with a number that high, and you have to legitimately worry about the twin-tower combo of Yaxel Lendeborg and Aday Mara fouling out the entire Bison frontcourt.
In addition, Howard's rim defense ranked at the Bottom 37% of the sport in games against Top 100 opponents this season.
These are massive red flags. I’d play this to 92.5.
Read Chris Hatfield's full Howard vs. Michigan predictions for Thursday, March 19.
SGP
9 Saint Louis vs 8 Georgia
Midwest Region, 9:45 p.m. ET, CBS
Best bet
Big totals in March can feel scary, but context matters: over the last five tournaments, totals of 165+ have still gone 8-6 to the Over. Not a huge edge, but enough to trust a strong read. I’m betting accordingly.
This matchup screams pace. Both teams rank in the Top 50 in tempo and thrive in transition offensively, while struggling to defend it. That’s the perfect recipe for a track meet. Expect constant push, quick shots, and minimal resistance in the open floor. That’s exactly the environment you want when backing an Over this high.
Read Chris Hatfield's full Saint Louis vs. Georgia predictions for Thursday, March 19.
SGP
10 Santa Clara vs 7 Kentucky
Midwest Region, 12:15 p.m. ET, CBS
Best bet
Kentucky’s transition offense is elite, scoring an absurd 1.44 points per play (99th percentile). That’s where Oweh thrives as he’s responsible for a team-leading 7% of Kentucky’s transition scoring.
Santa Clara, meanwhile, allows 1.28 points per play in transition (one of the worst nationally). That’s a problem against Kentucky as a whole, but it’s a big issue against one of the best transition scorers in the SEC.
Why is Oweh shooting over 45% from the field? Because he gets so many easy looks. We’ll see that here.
Read Chris Hatfield's full Santa Clara vs. Kentucky predictions for Friday, March 20.
SGP
March Madness betting 101
Single elimination changes everything. One cold shooting night or foul trouble can end a season, so aim for good prices and smart risk, not “can’t-miss” takes.
Start with the basics
Spread: In point spread betting, you’re wagering on how close the game stays. In the tournament, late-game fouling can turn a tight cover into a bad beat (or vice versa).
Moneyline:Moneyline betting is often the cleanest way to play a true March Madness upset, but you risk losing more frequently if you wager just on underdogs.
Total: Pace and shot quality matter in Over/Under betting, but so do tournament quirks like neutral rims, tight legs, and whistle changes.
Neutral-site mindset
Games aren’t played in familiar gyms, and crowds can be split. Travel, time zones, and quick turnarounds can matter, especially for teams that rely heavily on energy, depth, or shooting rhythm. When in doubt, lean on repeatable traits: defense, rebounding, and turnover control.
Why single elimination matters
Underdogs can be live because favorites feel pressure and have less room to “play through” a bad stretch. But favorites can also separate late when depth and free throws matter. Think in game scripts:
- Take the underdog + points if they can control tempo, defend without fouling, and protect the ball.
- Sprinkle a unit on the moneyline if they have a clear matchup advantage (e.g., elite 3-point volume vs weak perimeter D).
- Bet on the favorite if they can force turnovers, dominate the glass, or punish inside.
First half vs full game betting
Early nerves and unfamiliar sightlines can create slow starts. If you expect a tactical feel-out period, 1H Unders or 1H underdog spreads can be sharper than full game.
Overtime and endgame chaos
OT is usually included in spreads/totals, and late fouling can add 10–20 “free” points. Totals can swing wildly in the final minute, but don’t panic if you’re on the right side of pace and shot quality.
Still need help? Our Covers hoops analysts are here to provide you with March Madness expert picks from the First Four to the National Championship Game.
Popular March Madness betting markets
March Madness is a betting buffet - the key is picking the right market for your edge.
Futures: Futures are best when you’re early or disagree with the bracket. Conference tourney week and Selection Sunday can create mispriced numbers on title, Final Four odds, March Madness MVP odds, and region winner odds. Shop prices, and remember: a “good team” isn’t always a good futures bet if the path is brutal.
Game lines: The spread, moneyline, and total are the bread and butter once the bracket starts. Neutral courts, quick turnarounds, and unfamiliar sightlines can impact shooting (and totals) especially early. If you have a strong pace or matchup read, consider team totals or 1st half bets to isolate the edge.
Props:March Madness props shine when roles are stable and matchups are clear: usage, minutes, foul risk, and opponent style (rim protection, pace, rebounding). Ladders and alt lines can be powerful, but keep stakes smaller.
Same-game parlays: SGPs can be fun, but value varies. Compare the parlay payout to betting legs individually, and prioritize lines you’d play on their own.
And be sure to check out our expert NCAA bracket picks before the action begins!
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.