UFC London’s best betting props, parlays and picks | Evloev vs. Murphy
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UFC London is live this weekend (Sat., March. 21, 2026) at the O2 in London, England and streaming on Paramount+. The headliner for this bout is a bona fide number one contender fight in the Featherweight division featuring two undefeated fighters.
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Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy will almost certainly generate a fresh opponent for reigning champion Alexander Volkanovski. It’s a home game for Murphy against Evloev, who is coming off a long lay-off.
There’s another undefeated fighter in the co-main event, with Liverpools Luke Riley meeting Michael Aswell Jr. The main card also has Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson, Iwo Baraniewski vs. Austen Lane, Roman Dolidze vs. Christian Leroy Duncan and Kurtis Campbell vs. Danny Silva.
UFC London’s “Prelims” are headlined by Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola. The undercard also has Nathaniel Wood vs. Losene Keita and Mario Pinto vs. Felipe Franco.
As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:
UFC London Main Card Money Line Odds
Movsar Evloev (-245) vs. Lerone Murphy (+200)Evloev might be the least talked about undefeated fighter in the promotion. The 32 year-old Russian is 19-0 and 9-0 in UFC. He hasn’t fought since December, 2024, when he took a decision over Aljamain Sterling. His other UFC wins include victories over Arnold Allen, Diego Lopes and Dan Ige. All of his UFC wins are by decision, though. That’s why that list of wins hasn’t turned in to a title shot for him.
Murphy is also undefeated with a 17-0-1 record. He’s coming off a brutal spinning elbow KO over Aaron Pico (see it here). Before that he took a decisions over Josh Emmett, Dan Ige, and Edson Barboza.
Evloev should win this, right?
Pico was wrestling the shorts off of Murphy in their fight until he got blindsided by a hell-bow. Evloev is a better wrestler than Pico and his scouting report will have “spinning back elbow” written all over it. Murphy has good wrestling himself, but it’s hard not to imagine Evloev dumping Murphy down against the fence and laying on him for three minutes at a time.
This is a boring prediction, but I think we’re looking at a boring outcome, too. Poor Evloev might get a dominating win here, yet still find himself on the outside looking in (since there are so many exciting fighters at Featherweight who might get fast-tracked over him into a title shot).
Whatever might happen in the bigger picture, though, I still think this is Evloev’s fight to lose. The biggest concern I have is his lay-off time. Fighters who are out for over a year are at a statistical disadvantage against fighters who have been more active.
Elite fighters can buck those kinds of trends, though, and I’d put Evloev in that category.
Evloev is plus money on the handicap spread, which is interesting. You can get him -5.5 at +100. I think this probably goes to a decision and that Evloev wins it something like 49-46, with him losing the first round while he takes time to settle down. However, I really don’t like playing a fighter on the point spread if I can’t see them getting a finish. And I certainly don’t see the decision-heavy Evloev finishing Murphy for the first time in his career.
The round total is 4.5, with Vegas clearly favoring this to go the distance. The over is -345 and the under is +250. Fight to go the distance is -225.
Thanks to Murphy being a very good fighter himself, there is a little value on some other Evloev prop bets. You can get Evloev to win by decision at -120. And Evloev to win plus over 4.5 rounds at -135.
If you like Murphy there’s all kinds of fun bets out there for you. He’s -135 with that +5.5 point spread. You can also get him +400 to win by decision or +650 to win by KO/TKO/DQ.
My best bet is a boring bet, though, to go with my boring prediction and what might be a boring fight.
Best bet: Movsar Evloev by decision (-120)
Luke Riley (-245) vs. Michael Aswell Jr. (+200)Riley improved to 10-0 with his UFC debut in November. He won that fight, over Bogdan Grad, with a second round TKO (see it here). That earned him a Performance of the Night bonus, much to the delight of his teammate Paddy Pimblett.
AswellJr. lost a split decision to Grad on Contender Series in 2024. That entertaining fight won him plenty of admirers, though. He was signed on short notice to fight Bolaji Oki in 2025, whom he lost to via decision. In October he beat Lucas Almeida by TKO. It was pretty clear that Almeida went into that fight with a broken hand, though.
Aswell has gained a reputation for being a tough fighter, but is he a good fighter… as well?
His numbers are off the charts through three tracked bouts. He has landed an ungodly 9.56 sig. strikes a minute. That’s thanks to 155 landed against Grad and 118 landed against Oki. His accuracy on those strikes has been 45 percent, which is below average. He’s absorbed a massive 7.79 sig. strikes a minute in the process of landing those.
In Riley’s win over Grad he landed 14 sig. strikes in five minutes and change and absorbed seven. It’s hard to compare these two based on the limited exposure we’ve had to Riley at this level of competition. When considering the ‘eye test’, though, Riley looks like a very impressive prospect and a potentially devastating striker.
Neither of these men have much interest in wrestling, so we can expect a stand up war in our co-main event. The big question is whether Aswell’s death by a thousand cuts will do more than Riley’s explosive outbursts. The bookies clearly think Riley will win this one. And I’m willing to buy into his hype, too.
I’m just wondering what Riley will look like if he hits Aswell with the kitchen sink, but doesn’t get a stoppage.
I think Riley’s pace and activity are going to probably carry him through this fight, just like it did with Oki. I think Aswell being so willing to stand and bang is going to give Riley all he needs to crack 100 sig. strikes in this fight and likely outland Aswell, too.
Best bet: Luke Riley moneyline (-245)
Michael Page (-185) vs. Sam Patterson (+154)Page doesn’t want to be in the UFC anymore. That seems pretty clear. And a booking like this tells us the UFC aren’t particularly interested in keeping him around either. He was a splashy signing for UFC in 2024 and was immediately matched up against Kevin Holland, who he beat by decision. He then lost a decision to Ian Machado Garry, but was barely touched in the process. He then beat Shara Magomedov and Jared Cannonier.
Patterson is one a four fight winning streak with finishes over Trey Waters (see it here), Danny Barlow (as a big underdog) and Kiefer Crosbie. He dropped his UFC debut fight against Yanal Ashmouz in 2023.
There’s a good chance this is Page’s last UFC fight. This reminds me of when stick and ball players are in ‘contract years’. He might want to go out with a bang to give himself a good shot at a nice one fight deal out of Most Valuable Promotions (MVP in MVP? How can that not happen?).
This might lead to a more aggressive Page than we’ve seen in the Octagon. The big question is whether that will benefit Patterson or not. Patterson’s counter punching has looked on point during his successful run.
The nightmare scenario is that Page does not go for broke and that both these guys sit back waiting for a counter shot. That would leave us with a fifteen minute long staring contest, briefly interrupted by calf kicks. I could see that happening, sadly.
If that does happen, I can imagine Patterson being a little more aggressive and stepping forwards enough to get a very boring decision.
No matter what happens, though, I think the over is the play here. The round total is 2.5 and you can get plus money on that. This will cover me in case we get the staring contest. And it covers me too if MVP does come to fight, but his potency has gone down a little with him now being 38.
Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (+105)
Iwo Baraniewski (-575) vs. Austen Lane (+425)In December Baraniewski and Ibo Aslan produced the most electrifying 90 seconds of MMA that we saw last year (and maybe ever!). Those two threw non stop power punches over that time with both men getting flash knocked out before Aslan was finally crumbled against the cage.
That bonkers win improved Baraniewski to 7-0 as a pro. He won his Contender Series with a 20 second KO. All of his pro fights have been first round finishes.
Why does UFC keep doing this to Austen Lane? The former NFLer’s last five bouts have been Vitor Petrino, Mario Pinto, Robelis Despaigne, Jhonata Diniz and Justin Tafa. He’s been stopped by all them, other than Despaigne (who he took a decision over). The matchmakers were fully expecting Despaigne to starch him, though. Earlier in his career he was the sacrificial lamb for Greg Hardy on Contender Series.
Lane has responded to this kind of challenge in the past by spamming takedowns. I’m not sure he’ll be conscious long enough to attempt his first single-leg in this fight, though. I feel confident that Baraniewski is going to keep his impressive run going (since he’s been given a match-up that purposefully gives him as good a chance as possible of doing so). Sadly, there’s no value in that thinking. Every bet that aligns with that has horribly short odds.
I’ll just list the moneyline on Baraniewski here, but I’ll be using him to prop up a number of parlays.
Best bet: Iwo Baraniewski moneyline (-575)
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The is Dolidze’s first fight since he was dominated and choked by Anthony Hernandez in August. That beating broke a three fight winning streak for the Georgian. During that run he beat Anthony Smith (in a glorified sparring match), Kevin Holland (by injury, which — to be fair — he caused) and Marvin Vettori.
Duncan has won his last two fights in blistering fashion. In November he TKO’d Marco Tulio (see it here), handing the Brazilian his first pro loss. Before that he finished Eryk Anders in the first round (see it here). Before those finishes he won a boring, yet convincing, decision over Andrey Pulyaev.
This is a tough fight for the 37 year-old Dolidze. He’s declining right now and he’s meeting a 30-year-old Duncan who is experiencing a mid-to-late career surge in confidence and development.
Dolidze is well known for not using enough of his wrestling and instead tolerating close striking match-ups. If he’s just going to kick box in this match, then I don’t think it’s going to be very close. Duncan has reach on Dolidze and he’s far more active and accurate on the feet. He lands 4.6 sig. strikes a minute and has an above average accuracy of 58 percent. Dolidze lands just 3.41 and has a below average accuracy of 41 percent.
I think Duncan can make a big statement in this fight and put away the aging Dolidze on home soil.
Best bet: Christian Leroy Duncan to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+130)
Kurtis Campbell (-218) vs. Danny Silva (+180)Campbell won in just over a minute on Contender Series in September, beating Demba Seck by TKO. He’s 23 years-old and 8-0.
Silva lost a decision to Kevin Vallejos in his last fight, back in August. Given what we’ve seen from Vallejos since then, that’s a pretty impressive feat. That dropped Silva to 2-1 in UFC. His wins were split decisions over Lucas Almeida and Josh Culibao.
Admittedly, I don’t know much about Campbell. But I have watched Silva fight a lot and I think he’s a potential trap for anyone coming right off Contender Series. He has good boxing and very good wrestling.
Silva looked competitive against Vallejos and we’re learning that this is very difficult to do. I like him to look good in this bout, too. I’m happy to take him as the underdog and then see if his veteran savvy will get him the win off a hot young prospect.
Best bet: Danny Silva moneyline (+180)
UFC London ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds
Mason Jones (-118) vs. Axel Sola (-102)Jones was re-signed to UFC last year as a hand picked opponent for Jeremy Stephens at the UFC Iowa card. And he did what was expected of him, give the Des Moines fans a fun fight against their hometown guy. He won that by decision, with Stephens actually cracking him a few times. He followed that up with a finish over Bolaji Oki in September, which earned him a Performance of the Night bonus.
Sola debuted at UFC Paris last year and scored a third round TKO over Rhys McKee. He was lucky to win that one, though. He looked good in the first round of that fight, but gassed out in the second. Then, in the third, when he dropped McKee from a body shot he benefited from a very early stoppage. I’m surprised UFC hasn’t given McKee the rematch here.
If Sola is prone to gassing out, then this is a horrible match-up for him. I’ll go with Jones, either way, hoping karma evens out Sola’s recent record.
Best bet: Mason Jones moneyline (-118)
Nathaniel Wood (+195) vs. Losene Keita (-238)Wood has won his last three fights and he’s now 10-3 in UFC. Despite having wins over Jose Delgado and Morgan Charriere, Wood’s not exactly on the radar when you consider the Featherweight title picture. That’s because all his wins, other than his promotional debut in 2018, have come by decision.
Keita was a double champion in OKTAGON. He vacated those two belts, though, to book a spot at last year’s UFC Paris. He was given a great opportunity by the company that night, with a fight against the aging Patricio Pitbull. However, Keita missed weight and Pitbull refused the fight.
Wood is very good at playing spoiler. He’s extremely technical and he doesn’t do anything silly out there. I’m definitely tempted to take him here, especially since Keita has a had a rocky road to get his UFC debut.
I have a lot of respect for Keita’s exploits outside UFC. OKTAGON is in the tier of orgs directly below UFC, in my opinion. And its an org full of finishers, too. You have to be pretty good to get out of there unscathed, as Keita has (his only pro loss was due to a foot injury he suffered).
I think he’s good enough to beat Wood and a few other Featherweights in the top 15. I don’t know if he blows through Wood, though. Wood’s defense and the chance of Octagon jitters has me thinking this is a close fight that goes the distance.
Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-130)
Mario Pinto (-900) vs. Felipe Franco (+600)Pinto stopped Jhonata Diniz at the last show in London. He then got on the mic and, after saying he didn’t speak English, cut a promo where he sounded like an extra from Lock Stock & Two Smoking Barrels. Before that he put away Austen Lane (see it here).
Franco lost, by submission, on Contender Series in September. He scored two first round stoppages since then, though, to earn his UFC contract the traditional way. His last fight was Light Heavyweight. He’s yo-yoed between Light Heavyweight and Heavyweight in the past few years.
Pinto is our biggest favorite on the card. And it’s easy to see why. He’s a Heavyweight who is actually good and enjoyable to watch. Franco is a blown up Light Heavyweight and I think he’s going to get tagged a bunch from range and go down early.
Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-166)
Mantas Kondratavicius (-800) vs. Antonio Trocoli (+550)Krondratavicius scored a one minute TKO on Contender Series in September. He’s 8-1. Though, outside of a single appearance on Cage Warriors, he’s not appeared on any of the premier promotions in Europe.
Trocoli is 0-3 in UFC (and 12-6) overall. He’s lost back-to-back fights by guillotine, to Mansur Abdul-Malik and Tresean Gore. He was TKO’d in his debut, versus Shara Magomedov (see it here).
Kontratavicius is one of the biggest favorites on the card and I don’t see any reason to dispute that. Trocoli has shown he can lose in multiple ways and that he’s just not UFC quality.
The round total is 1.5. I think Kondratavicius’ striking looks vicious enough to get this over quickly.
Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-220)
Louie Sutherland (+220) vs. Brando Pericic (-270)Sutherland was supposed to debut opposite Justin Tafa in Australia last September. However, that fight fell through at the weigh-ins. Sutherland was then given a fight with Valter Walker a month later. That fight ended in a heel hook, of course (see it here).
Pericic was on that Aussie card in September. He earned a Performance of the Night bonus with a first round TKO over Elisha Ellison. The City Kickboxing man is now 5-1.
I’m not very sold on Sutherland as a UFC Heavyweight. I also think he’s undersized at 6’3”. Pericic is a legitimate Heavyweight and an athletic one, too. He’s also well trained and better tested.
Best bet: Brando Pericic moneyline (-270)
Shem Rock (+110) vs. Abdul Kareem Al-Selwady (-130)Rock, another one of Pimblett’s mates, debuted in the Middle East last year after years spent winning in OKTAGON MMA. In his Octagon debut he took a decision loss to Nurullo Aliev, but he gave good showing despite that loss.
Al-Selwady made his UFC debut back in March, 2024. Back then he suffered a third round TKO to Loik Radzhabov (see it here). He’s had injuries and fight cancellations since then, leading to this long time spent on the sidelines.
I’m surprised to see Rock as the slight underdog in this one. He’s got size on Al-Sewady and he’s been active while Al-Sewaday has been sitting out for two years.
Best bet: Shem Rock moneyline (+110)
Shanelle Dyer (-470) vs. Ravena Oliveira (+360)Dyer was 3-0 in PFL before she dropped a decision to Carol Faro on Contender Series in September. That dropped the 24 year-old to 6-1. She had an extensive amateur career. She met UFC vets Shauna Bannon and Ivana Petrovic back then. Both those women stopped her with ground and pound. She was very young back then, though.
Oliveira is 0-2 to start her UFC career. She’s had some tough match-ups, though, losing to Thainara Lisboa and Stephanie Luciano (by submission).
Dyer is a bit of an unknown, but what we know about her is very positive. She’s a high motor volume striker with some power (she scored a headkick KO in PFL). Oliveira is a low volume striker who doesn’t do enough grappling to make up for it.
I think Dyer takes this, but I also see it being a decision, so I’ll take the over.
Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-270)
Melissa Mullins (+110) vs. Luana Carolina (-130)Mullins’ UFC record was evened out in her last fight, with a decision loss to Darya Zheleznyakova dropping her to 2-2. Before that she beat Klaudia Sygula by TKO (see it here) in a fight where she missed weight.
Carolina lost a unanimous decision to Michelle Montague in her last fight, in September. She won her previous three, though, including a stoppage of Julja Stoliarenko. She’s 6-4 in UFC.
Mullins has been very unreliable during her UFC tenure, including when trying to hit her mark on the scales. Carolina is more experienced, better disciplined and I think good enough on the feet to win the striking differential battle and thus earn a decision.
Best bet: Luana Carolina moneyline (-130)
UFC London Long Shots!
Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …
Christian Leroy Duncan to win in Round 1 (+350)I really like Duncan in his match-up with Dolidze. Dolidze is 38 now and, despite recent wins, he’s clearly on the decline. Those wins have some heavy caveats attached to them. Duncan’s latest wins have been no-doubters, though. He’s looked incredible in his last two and I think his heavy hands will put an end to Dolidze’s night early.
Three-bet parlay: Sam Patterson, Danny Silva and Iwo Baraniewski (+764)I’ve got two underdogs and a massive favorite here. I think Patterson has a chance of winning, with Michael Page potentially distracted by drama behind the scenes. There’s also a chance that Page puts in a bit of a protest performance here, with Patterson winning almost by default. I think Silva has a lot of value as a dog against an unproven Kurtis Campbell. And Baraniewski should starch Austen Lane with no issues.
Sam Patterson vs. Michael Page – Point to Be Deducted (+2000)This bout has weird vibes, man. I can see something strange happening. And with how many fouls we’re seeing lately, I think we’re on the cusp of there being a big shift in the refereeing paradigm. The refs simply have to start enforcing the rules at some point. This match up has lots of potential for eye pokes and groin shots (fun!), so maybe we’ll get a point taken away at some point.
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