Federal Liberal support slips, but Carney maintains double-digit support: Poll
· Toronto Sun
OTTAWA — As spring slowly sprouts throughout the nation’s capital, the Mark Carney Liberals fall a point but maintain a double-digit lead on the Pierre Poilievre Conservatives.
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In their latest political tracker poll, Liaison Strategies put the Liberals at 44% support, followed by the Conservatives at 33% and the NDP at 9%.
The NDP maintain their single-digit showing at just 7%, suggesting their election of a new leader last week offered the struggling party little to no momentum in the polls.
Five per cent of respondents preferred the Bloc Québécois, while 2% each supported the Greens, the People’s Party of Canada, or were undecided.
Twelve per cent of those polled said they supported some other party.
“The Liberals continue to hold a significant advantage across most of the country, driven by strong numbers in Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia,” said Liaison Principal David Valentin.
“While the Conservatives remain the preferred choice for younger voters and in the Prairies, they have yet to close the gap in the central Canadian battlegrounds necessary to overtake the Liberal lead.”
Large support gaps remain
When asked who they’d vote for if the federal election were held today, the Tories saw their strongest support in Alberta with 43% support (compared to 29% support for the Carney Liberals), followed by Manitoba and Saskatchewan at 41%, where they trail the Liberals by just 1%.
The biggest gaps between the Liberals and Conservatives can be seen in Ontario and Quebec — La Belle Province has the Liberals at 34%, twice the support of the Tories at 17%, while in Ontario, the Poilievre Conservatives sit in an uncomfortable second-place with 30%, while the Liberals lead with 46% of the vote.
Likewise, the Liberals both lead Atlantic Canada and B.C. with 41% compared to the Conservatives, where they’ve only managed to garner 30% and 33% in those districts, respectively.
Support for PM strong, but slipping
While the prime minister still enjoys strong support among Canadians, his approval rating fell three percentage points from 64% to 61% — but data suggests growing uncertainty over disapproval.
“Notably, his disapproval hasn’t risen alongside it; instead, more respondents are now saying they’re unsure,” Valentin said.
Indeed, numbers of those who disapprove of Carney remain unchanged at 32%, while those reported being unsure increased three percentage points, from 5% to 8%.
A similar trend is shaping up for Poilievre, which saw respondents saying they weren’t sure about his leadership increase by roughly the same number that his disapproval rating fell.
“His unfavourables have dropped from 57% in January to 50% today, but rather than translating into higher favourables, most of that shift is showing up in a growing share of Canadians who are unsure about his performance,” Valentin said.
Poilievre’s unfavourability rating currently sits at 50%, compared to his 38% favourability rating, and 8% who were unsure.
The poll was conducted between March 23 and April 4, 2026, among a random sample of 1,000 Canadians, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.