Mark Carney Liberals continue to outpace struggling Tories in polls
· Toronto Sun
OTTAWA — As Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre spends the week garnering support for Canada south of the border, his Conservatives continue to lose ground against the Mark Carney Liberals.
In new poll numbers published Monday by Liaison Strategies, the Mark Carney Liberals now maintain a 14 percentage point lead over the Conservatives — commanding 45% support among those polled.
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The Conservatives trail the Liberals with 31%, followed by the federal NDP in a distant third place at 8%.
That’s just ahead of the Bloc Québécois at six per cent, the People’s Party of Canada at four per cent, and the Green Party rounding out the basement at just three per cent support.
Carney effect still going strong, but numbers are softening
Liaison Strategies principal David Valentin referred to the PM’s surge of support as the “Carney effect” — a high he and the federal Liberals have enjoyed since the PM’s January speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, but said that momentum is starting to wane.
“Particularly notable is the Liberal strength in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, which remains the bedrock of their current lead,” Valentin said. “While Mark Carney’s approval remains high at 63%, we are seeing a slight softening this week as his disapproval rating climbed two points to 33%. The momentum we saw heading into March appears to have leveled off, with the numbers returning to the stable range seen throughout February.”
Respondents who disapprove of Carney’s performance saw a significant fall from the PM’s all-time high of near 40% at the beginning of 2026, but increased slightly from last week.
Carney’s highest approval ratings come from the historically Liberal-supporting Atlantic provinces, with 70% in that region saying they approve of the PM’s performance.
That’s just two points ahead of Ontario, and seven points ahead of Quebec.
Poilievre Tories still having a hard time making inroads
Poilievre, on the other hand, continues to face challenges in getting Canadians to buy into his brand as his favourability increases slightly to 38%.
“His unfavourability has dropped from 54% to 52%, but it remains stubbornly high,” Valentin said. “The current 14-point gap between his favourability and unfavourability highlights the hurdle the Conservatives face in broadening their appeal as they move further into 2026”.
The poll was conducted between March 2 and March 14 among a random sample of 1,000 adult Canadians, weighted to match targets from the 2021 census, with a margin of error of ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20.